The Last Straw? GNSS Disruption in the High North

This case examines persistent disruption of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) affecting northern Norway and the broader Arctic region. What began as episodic concern during a major NATO exercise in 2018 evolved into a recurring operational problem, intensifying after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and increasingly affecting civilian aviation, maritime navigation and emergency services. By 2025, suspected spoofing incidents had added a new layer of risk by introducing misleading positioning data rather than simple signal loss.

This case is designed to help participants examine how states respond to persistent, below-threshold interference affecting shared civilian and military infrastructure. It highlights the governance challenges that arise when harmful activity creates real operational and safety risks but does not meet established thresholds for armed attack under the UN Charter or NATO collective defence provisions. In doing so, the case encourages participants to assess the limits of existing frameworks, compare available policy responses, and consider how ambiguity, civilian harm and escalation risk shape decision making.